The British economy will slow down significantly in the next two years, since Donald Trump's global tariff war is burdening consumer expenditure and business investments, a study of a leading forecast has predicted.
The results of the EY Item Club, which is sponsored by the Big Four Accountancy company EY, were raised as a separate survey that confidence in the British economy has dropped to the lowest level.
The latest survey by Ipsos, which has been pursuing economic net optimism in Great Britain since 1978, showed that the three -quarters of the British expect the economy to deteriorate the economy next year. Only 7% of the British believe that the economy will improve, while 13% believe that this would remain the same, which is equated with -68 of a net score.
Ey's forecast announced that the British gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 0.8% this year, compared to a projection of 1% in February and its forecast in 2026, from 1.6% to 0.9%, since long -term effects achieved Great Britain.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its growth for Great Britain to 1.1% this year, of the 1.6% that he had only predicted in January, while the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, was exposed to Trump's trade policy.
About 16% of British goods exports go to the USA – where there is a “baseline” of 10% in import tariffs and 25% for cars, steel and aluminum for most countries, which will directly affect growth by reducing the demand for British products.
However, the EY Item Club said that the larger hit probably comes from the indirect effects of the new guidelines of British consumers who have already been careful to commit to larger ticket items. Companies are also likely to restrict the amount that they will invest in the next two years.
Studies show that British companies react to potential disorders of the supply chain by tariffs by targeting new export markets in Asia, Africa and Australia.
The expansion or exporting in overseas will be a top priority for almost a third of the British companies in Great Britain next year, a survey of 500 companies according to consulting and auditing companies BDO.
Overall, almost 40% of the companies surveyed await exports next year and increase to more than half of the retail companies, in the large and tech sector.
More than a third of those who hope to increase their international sales aim at growth in Africa, while 38% intend to increase sales to Australia, and 30% that focus on Asian growth.
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British exporters are expected to concentrate on the EU countries, with 41% of medium-sized companies in Great Britain aim to increase sales to Member States.
“Although the conditions remain a challenge, the medium -sized companies are very ambitious and are targeting the growth of growth,” said Richard Austin, partner at BDO. “These companies generate from the trade with 130 billion GBP from the trade in overseas last year and are the strongest engine for our economy.”
Last week, Apple allegedly plans to move the meeting of all iPhones for the US market to India, as the company wants to reduce its confidence in a Chinese production base in the middle of Trump's trade war.
This article was amended on April 28, 2025. An earlier version that was referred to the Polling company Ipsos with its previous name Ipsos Mori.
